AI Revolution Complicates Predicting Future Water Shortages in England

The surge in artificial intelligence is creating uncertainty for the Environment Agency regarding England’s future water shortages. Currently, datacentres are not required to disclose their water usage for cooling purposes, complicating the Agency’s ability to predict needs.

Without immediate action to secure resources, England could face a daily shortfall of 5 billion litres in public water supply by 2055, according to government environmental regulators. An additional 1 billion litres per day could be needed for agriculture, energy production, and emerging technologies. However, this estimate excludes the water consumption of datacentres, as their usage remains unreported, potentially leading to an even larger deficit due to the considerable water needs of these facilities.

Every five years, the Environment Agency assesses water deficit projections, but this year proved challenging due to the rapid growth of AI, a significant factor affecting future consumption. It’s reported that most datacentres rely on public water supplies instead of alternative sources, and there is a clear demand for improved transparency regarding their water usage. At present, the Agency lacks comprehensive data on the current and future needs of these data hubs.

AI datacentres are crucial to the government’s growth strategy. This year, Keir Starmer proposed major expansions in AI capabilities and reduced planning restrictions for datacentre construction through the creation of “growth zones”. These datacentres rely heavily on water for cooling to prevent server overheating. For instance, Microsoft’s global datacentres are estimated to consume between 1.8 and 12 litres of water for every kilowatt-hour of energy used. Projections suggest that global AI usage could account for approximately 6.6 billion cubic meters of water by 2027, nearly two-thirds of England’s yearly water consumption.

Alan Lovell, chair of the Environment Agency, emphasized the increasing strain on the nation’s water resources. He warned that the growing deficit threatens not only access to clean water but also economic growth and food production. Unsustainable extraction of water can lead to severe consequences for ecosystems and wildlife, making it essential to address these challenges proactively and coordinate efforts to conserve this vital resource.

Plans to enhance water supply, submitted by various water companies, include the development of nine desalination plants, ten new reservoirs, and seven water recycling initiatives by 2050. Water bills for consumers are expected to rise as funding for this infrastructure increases.

The government also aims to implement individual household monitoring through smart meters, allowing for charges based on actual water usage and enabling better tracking by water companies and agencies. Additionally, climate change is anticipated to further strain water resources, making summer droughts more likely, especially in areas that depend mainly on surface water. Insufficient rainfall may hinder groundwater replenishment.

Recently, Thames Water launched a public consultation regarding a contentious drought initiative that involves discharging millions of litres of treated sewage into the River Thames daily. The £300 million project proposes to extract 75 million litres per day from the river in southwest London during drought conditions and replenish it with treated sewage from one of Europe’s largest treatment facilities at Mogden. This plan has faced significant opposition, including from Liberal Democrat MP Munira Wilson, who raised concerns over river water quality, the risk of “forever chemicals,” and ecological impacts. The Environment Agency has indicated that Thames Water has yet to demonstrate the scheme’s feasibility or environmental viability. Notably, Thames Water currently loses about 570 million litres daily due to leaks, the highest among privatised water companies.

Ofwat’s chief executive, David Black, stated that enhancing supply through the construction of essential water infrastructure is critical for securing drinking water availability. He underscored the importance of continuing to build on the successes of projects like the recently launched £5 billion Thames Tideway initiative by committing to a pipeline of 30 major projects needed across England and Wales.